Sat, Apr 25 2026 âą 15:30 âą
Stade des Trois-ChĂȘnes
Expected Goals
2.58 (league 1.67)
1.37 (league 1.52)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.9% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.8%
3 - 1
7.6%
1 - 1
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Martigny Sports | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| ChĂȘnois | 0 | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
ChĂȘnois carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 202 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: ChĂȘnois +46.4, Martigny Sports -10.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
ChĂȘnois
vs
Martigny Sports
Elo gapChĂȘnois +202
Home / draw / away62% / 18% / 20%
Expected home share76%
Combined Elo3019.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3019.5
Elo home share
76%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1593.4 | 1426.1 |
| Form Elo | 1619.4 | 1406.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1521.3 | 1471 |
| Attack Elo | 1603.1 | 1466 |
| Defense Elo | 1567.1 | 1381.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +46.4 | -10.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. ChĂȘnois last-5 Elo change: +46.4; Martigny Sports last-5 Elo change: -10.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 27% |
| Attack | 60% | 45% |
| Defense | 85% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 15 | 3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
68%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 42% | 50% | 46% | 25% | 17% | 21% |
| Draws | 42% | 33% | 38% | 33% | 25% | 29% |
| Loses | 17% | 17% | 17% | 42% | 58% | 50% |
ChĂȘnoisDLDDLWDWWWDDWDWLDWLWWDWW
Martigny SportsWDLLDWLWDLDLWDLLDLLLLDWL
League goals
| Metric | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 21 | 43 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 19 | 14 | 33 | 20 | 29 | 49 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 71% | 75% | 92% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 42% | 33% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 13% | 13% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 6-1 | 1-4 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | ChĂȘnois | Martigny Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 76% | 24% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 83% | 17% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 70.8% | 29.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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