Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 16:15 • Estadio Nuevo Mirador
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.57 (league 1.31) 1.08 (league 0.93)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
19.4% 33.0% 47.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
20.7%
0 - 0
19.2%
1 - 1
11.8%
Score & goals probability table
Real Murcia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Algeciras 0 19.2% 20.7% 11.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2%
1 11.0% 11.8% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 3.1% 3.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlgecirasReal Murcia
Played44
Form33%42%
Attack43%57%
Defense43%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.84 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 14 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%
FT probability

2.5+

39%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Algeciras Real Murcia
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins0%50%25%50%0%25%
Draws50%0%25%50%50%50%
Loses50%50%50%0%50%25%

Form: Algeciras: LDWL • Real Murcia: LWDD

League goals

Metric Algeciras Real Murcia
HATHAT
GF total123224
GF avg0.51.00.81.01.01.0
GA total224134
GA avg1.01.01.00.51.51.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlgecirasReal Murcia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%50%100%75%
1.50%50%0%25%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlgecirasReal Murcia
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score101000

Penalties

MetricAlgecirasReal Murcia
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricAlgecirasReal Murcia
Wins11
Draws10
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-11-0—
Biggest losses1-22-1—2-1
Goals For1111
Goals Against2212

Model comparison

MetricAlgecirasReal Murcia
Form44%56%
Att43%57%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution36%64%
H2h7%93%
Goals25%75%
Total34.2%65.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Real Murcia and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.90 @ Betfair
Draw3.23 @ Pinnacle
Away2.25 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.59 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.50 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.25 @ Bet365
No1.67 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Algeciras = 0.57 (league 1.31), Real Murcia = 1.08 (league 0.93)

Real Murcia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Algeciras 0 19.2% 20.7% 11.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2%
1 11.0% 11.8% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 3.1% 3.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 19.4% · Draw 33.0% · Away win 47.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1