Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 20:00 • Estadio El Palmar
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.89 (league 1.31) 1.40 (league 0.93)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.9% 27.2% 48.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.1%
1 - 1
12.6%
0 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Real Murcia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sanluqueño 0 10.1% 14.1% 9.9% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5%
1 9.0% 12.6% 8.8% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4%
2 4.0% 5.6% 4.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSanluqueñoReal Murcia
Played55
Form27%80%
Attack29%57%
Defense43%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

62%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sanluqueño Real Murcia
HATHAT
Played89179817
Wins25%11%18%44%38%41%
Draws50%22%35%33%25%29%
Loses25%67%47%22%38%29%

Form: Sanluqueño: DDWDWDLLLLLDLWLDL • Real Murcia: LWDDLDLLDWWDWWWLW

League goals

Metric Sanluqueño Real Murcia
HATHAT
GF total1051511819
GF avg1.30.60.91.21.01.1
GA total1012229716
GA avg1.31.31.31.00.90.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSanluqueñoReal Murcia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.553%76%71%76%
1.524%41%29%18%
2.512%12%12%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSanluqueñoReal Murcia
HATHAT
Clean sheets224224
Failed to score268325

Penalties

MetricSanluqueñoReal Murcia
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricSanluqueñoReal Murcia
Wins13
Draws22
Losses52

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-33-10-2
Biggest losses1-33-00-22-1
Goals For3332
Goals Against3322

Model comparison

MetricSanluqueñoReal Murcia
Form25%75%
Att33%67%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total37.0%63.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Real Murcia

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.35 @ Unibet
Draw2.90 @ Unibet
Away2.52 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.70 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.47 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.27 @ 188Bet
No1.71 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sanluqueño = 0.89 (league 1.31), Real Murcia = 1.40 (league 0.93)

Real Murcia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sanluqueño 0 10.1% 14.1% 9.9% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5%
1 9.0% 12.6% 8.8% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4%
2 4.0% 5.6% 4.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.9% · Draw 27.2% · Away win 48.5%

vtt 4 , vtd1