Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:00 •
Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares
Expected Goals
2.20 (league 1.31)
0.84 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8% | 18.7% | 13.0% |
best score tips
2 - 0
11.5%
1 - 0
10.5%
2 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Real Betis II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atlético Madrid II | 0 | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.5% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Atlético Madrid II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 147 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atlético Madrid II +8.6, Real Betis II +39.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Atlético Madrid II
vs
Real Betis II
Elo gapAtlético Madrid II +147
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3029.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3029.2
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1570.8 | 1458.4 |
| Form Elo | 1576.2 | 1475.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1560 | 1482.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1562.1 | 1483.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1568.6 | 1387.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.6 | +39.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Atlético Madrid II last-5 Elo change: +8.6; Real Betis II last-5 Elo change: +39.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 85% | 69% |
| Defense | 38% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 50% | 47% | 48% | 35% | 19% | 27% |
| Draws | 44% | 18% | 30% | 24% | 25% | 24% |
| Loses | 6% | 35% | 21% | 41% | 56% | 48% |
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Real Betis IIDDLLDDLWLLDLLLLWLDWLLWWDLLWLWDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 26 | 52 | 23 | 16 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 13 | 21 | 34 | 25 | 28 | 53 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 61% | 64% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 30% | 39% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 9% | 12% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 3% | 3% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-4 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atlético Madrid II | Real Betis II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 72% | 28% |
| H2h | 88% | 13% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 61.6% | 38.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.54 @ Unibet
Draw4.50 @ Betfair
Away7.13 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.94 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.97 @ Unibet
No1.83 @ Bet365
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League standings
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