Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Estadio José Rico Pérez
Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.31)
0.51 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.9% | 33.0% | 17.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
22.1%
0 - 0
20.2%
2 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Teruel | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hércules | 0 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.1% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Teruel carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 31 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hércules -22.5, Teruel -18.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Hércules
vs
Teruel
Elo gapTeruel +31
Home / draw / away34% / 26% / 40%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3016.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3016.7
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Hércules | Teruel |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1475.3 | 1541.4 |
| Form Elo | 1471 | 1538.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507 | 1521.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1433.4 | 1422.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1509.4 | 1649 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.5 | -18.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Hércules last-5 Elo change: -22.5; Teruel last-5 Elo change: -18.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hércules | Teruel |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 33% |
| Attack | 23% | 31% |
| Defense | 46% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hércules | Teruel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 63% | 6% | 33% | 47% | 25% | 36% |
| Draws | 19% | 47% | 33% | 24% | 44% | 33% |
| Loses | 19% | 47% | 33% | 29% | 31% | 30% |
HérculesWLLLDLWWLDWLWDWDWLDDDWDLDWDWLWLDL
TeruelDLDDWWDWWWLDLLWWLLWLLDWWDDWDLDWLD
League goals
| Metric | Hércules | Teruel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 15 | 35 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 10 | 27 | 37 | 9 | 17 | 26 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hércules | Teruel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 64% | 61% | 48% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 15% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 6% | 0% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hércules | Teruel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hércules | Teruel |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hércules | Teruel |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 4-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hércules | Teruel |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 17% | 83% |
| Total | 42.2% | 57.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.12 @ Betano
Draw3.00 @ Betfair
Away3.80 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.62 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.45 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.25 @ Bet365
No1.63 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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