Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Banús Football Center
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.31)
1.10 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 22.8% | 32.0% | 45.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
18.4%
0 - 0
16.8%
1 - 1
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Sabadell | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marbella | 0 | 16.8% | 18.4% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.5% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Sabadell carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 143 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Marbella +0.7, Sabadell +4.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Marbella
vs
Sabadell
Elo gapSabadell +143
Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%
Expected home share30%
Combined Elo3039.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3039.1
Elo home share
30%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Marbella | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1430.5 | 1608.6 |
| Form Elo | 1438.3 | 1609.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1485.8 | 1552.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1450.4 | 1579.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1465.1 | 1659.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.7 | +4.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Marbella last-5 Elo change: +0.7; Sabadell last-5 Elo change: +4.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Marbella | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 67% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 11% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
57%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Marbella | Sabadell | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 38% | 12% | 24% | 53% | 44% | 48% |
| Draws | 19% | 24% | 21% | 41% | 38% | 39% |
| Loses | 44% | 65% | 55% | 6% | 19% | 12% |
MarbellaWDDDDLWLDLLLLWLDLLLLWLLWLLDWWLLLW
SabadellDDWDWDDWDDDWWLWWWWWWDDLLWDWDWDLWW
League goals
| Metric | Marbella | Sabadell | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 14 | 30 | 24 | 21 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 13 | 30 | 43 | 6 | 14 | 20 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Marbella | Sabadell | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 58% | 73% | 67% | 39% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 30% | 39% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 15% | 15% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 6% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 6% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Marbella | Sabadell | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Marbella | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Marbella | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-1 | 5-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Marbella | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 37% | 63% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 40.8% | 59.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.25 @ Dafabet
Draw3.20 @ Betfair
Away2.38 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.35 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.58 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.80 @ Unibet
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League standings
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