Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Estadio El Palmar
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.31)
1.61 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 21.5% | 24.9% | 52.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.8%
1 - 1
11.8%
0 - 2
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Alcorcon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sanluqueño | 0 | 7.9% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Alcorcon carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 79 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sanluqueño -23.1, Alcorcon +1.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Sanluqueño
vs
Alcorcon
Elo gapAlcorcon +79
Home / draw / away31% / 21% / 48%
Expected home share39%
Combined Elo2935.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2935.6
Elo home share
39%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1411 | 1524.6 |
| Form Elo | 1398.5 | 1525.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1465.4 | 1480.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1377 | 1492.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1468.1 | 1584.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -23.1 | +1.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Sanluqueño last-5 Elo change: -23.1; Alcorcon last-5 Elo change: +1.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 47% |
| Attack | 8% | 77% |
| Defense | 62% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 25% | 18% | 21% | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Draws | 31% | 18% | 24% | 47% | 38% | 42% |
| Loses | 44% | 65% | 55% | 18% | 38% | 27% |
SanluqueñoDDWDWDLLLLLDLWLDLLLWLLWLLWWLLLDDL
AlcorconLWWDDDWLLDWLWLDLDDDWDDDWDWLDWDWLL
League goals
| Metric | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 8 | 26 | 21 | 14 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 27 | 19 | 46 | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 73% | 61% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 45% | 36% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 15% | 6% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 12 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sanluqueño | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 22% | 78% |
| Att | 9% | 91% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 37% | 63% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 29% | 71% |
| Total | 28.7% | 71.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.30 @ Dafabet
Draw3.40 @ Betfair
Away1.91 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.17 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.67 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.80 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…