Sat, Nov 15 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio El Toralín
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.82 (league 1.36) 0.41 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.9% 39.8% 17.3%
best score tips
0 - 0
29.0%
1 - 0
24.0%
0 - 1
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
Lugo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ponferradina 0 29.0% 12.0% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 24.0% 9.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 9.9% 4.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPonferradinaLugo
Played55
Form73%47%
Attack100%100%
Defense100%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)0 | 03 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

52%
FT probability

2.5+

37%
FT probability

3.5+

26%
FT probability

BTTS

52%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ponferradina Lugo
HATHAT
Played56115611
Wins40%33%36%60%0%27%
Draws0%50%27%40%50%45%
Loses60%17%36%0%50%27%

Form: Ponferradina: WLLLDLWWDWD • Lugo: LDLWLWDWDDD

League goals

Metric Ponferradina Lugo
HATHAT
GF total7512729
GF avg1.40.81.11.40.30.8
GA total729358
GA avg1.40.30.80.60.80.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePonferradinaLugo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%36%55%55%
1.536%27%27%18%
2.59%18%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPonferradinaLugo
HATHAT
Clean sheets257325
Failed to score134145

Penalties

MetricPonferradinaLugo
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricPonferradinaLugo
Wins21
Draws11
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-32-0—
Biggest losses1-32-1—2-1
Goals For2321
Goals Against3222

Model comparison

MetricPonferradinaLugo
Form61%39%
Att50%50%
Def100%0%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total55.2%44.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Ponferradina or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.23 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.00 @ Unibet
Away3.66 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.65 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.50 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.26 @ 188Bet
No1.68 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ponferradina = 0.82 (league 1.36), Lugo = 0.41 (league 1.02)

Lugo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ponferradina 0 29.0% 12.0% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 24.0% 9.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 9.9% 4.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.9% · Draw 39.8% · Away win 17.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1