Sat, Nov 22 2025 • 15:15 • Estadio Romano
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.47 (league 1.38) 1.69 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.9% 19.0% 25.3%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.0%
2 - 2
6.8%
3 - 1
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
Real Avilés
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mérida AD 0 1.6% 2.6% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
1 3.9% 6.5% 5.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.8% 8.0% 6.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5%
3 3.9% 6.6% 5.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5%
4 2.4% 4.1% 3.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
5 1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMérida ADReal Avilés
Played55
Form73%53%
Attack82%55%
Defense82%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.43 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mérida AD Real Avilés
HATHAT
Played66126612
Wins67%17%42%50%50%50%
Draws17%17%17%33%17%25%
Loses17%67%42%17%33%25%

Form: Mérida AD: WLLLLWLWDWWD • Real Avilés: LDWLWWWDLWWD

League goals

Metric Mérida AD Real Avilés
HATHAT
GF total1241671320
GF avg2.00.71.31.22.21.7
GA total5111661016
GA avg0.81.81.31.01.71.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMérida ADReal Avilés
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%58%67%58%
1.542%42%50%50%
2.525%25%33%25%
3.50%8%17%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMérida ADReal Avilés
HATHAT
Clean sheets415325
Failed to score134224

Penalties

MetricMérida ADReal Avilés
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricMérida ADReal Avilés
Wins23
Draws11
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-22-00-4
Biggest losses2-43-00-32-0
Goals For3234
Goals Against4333

Model comparison

MetricMérida ADReal Avilés
Form58%42%
Att60%40%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total58.5%41.5%

Advice: Double chance : Mérida AD or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.85 @ William Hill
Draw3.52 @ Pinnacle
Away4.38 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.76 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.88 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mérida AD = 2.47 (league 1.38), Real Avilés = 1.69 (league 1.04)

Real Avilés
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mérida AD 0 1.6% 2.6% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
1 3.9% 6.5% 5.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.8% 8.0% 6.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5%
3 3.9% 6.6% 5.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5%
4 2.4% 4.1% 3.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
5 1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.9% · Draw 19.0% · Away win 25.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1