Sat, Feb 7 2026 • 15:15 • Estadio Municipal da Malata
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.82 (league 1.36) 0.52 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.8% 38.6% 21.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
26.1%
1 - 0
21.5%
0 - 1
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
Lugo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Racing Ferrol 0 26.1% 13.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.5% 11.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.8% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRacing FerrolLugo
Played55
Form20%60%
Attack27%55%
Defense36%45%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Racing Ferrol Lugo
HATHAT
Played111122111122
Wins55%36%45%55%18%36%
Draws27%0%14%27%45%36%
Loses18%64%41%18%36%27%

Form: Racing Ferrol: WWWLDDWWLLWWLDWWLLLLWL • Lugo: LDLWLWDWDDDDWLDDWWWLWL

League goals

Metric Racing Ferrol Lugo
HATHAT
GF total15112614721
GF avg1.41.01.21.30.61.0
GA total10152511920
GA avg0.91.41.11.00.80.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRacing FerrolLugo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%73%64%59%
1.536%36%32%27%
2.55%5%0%5%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRacing FerrolLugo
HATHAT
Clean sheets336549
Failed to score325268

Penalties

MetricRacing FerrolLugo
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricRacing FerrolLugo
Wins33
Draws24
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-22-00-2
Biggest losses0-23-01-32-0
Goals For3222
Goals Against2332

Model comparison

MetricRacing FerrolLugo
Form25%75%
Att33%67%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h13%88%
Goals33%67%
Total34.8%65.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Lugo and -3.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.14 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.00 @ Unibet
Away3.90 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.47 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.62 @ Bet365
No1.65 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Racing Ferrol = 0.82 (league 1.36), Lugo = 0.52 (league 1.04)

Lugo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Racing Ferrol 0 26.1% 13.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.5% 11.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.8% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.8% · Draw 38.6% · Away win 21.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1