Sun, Mar 29 2026 • 10:00 • Estadio de O Couto
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.38) 0.85 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
27.5% 36.0% 36.5%
best score tips
0 - 0
21.4%
0 - 1
18.1%
1 - 0
14.8%
Score & goals probability table
Ponferradina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ourense CF 0 21.4% 18.1% 7.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.8% 12.6% 5.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.2% 4.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricOurense CFPonferradina
Played55
Form33%67%
Attack20%33%
Defense80%87%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.62 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

41%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ourense CF Ponferradina
HATHAT
Played141529141529
Wins50%7%28%43%40%41%
Draws21%40%31%14%33%24%
Loses29%53%41%43%27%34%

Form: Ourense CF: DDLLLDDLDWDWWWLDLWLWLLLWLWLDD • Ponferradina: WLLLDLWWDWDDLLDLLLWWWWDWWWLDW

League goals

Metric Ourense CF Ponferradina
HATHAT
GF total23831191231
GF avg1.60.51.11.40.81.1
GA total16173315924
GA avg1.11.11.11.10.60.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineOurense CFPonferradina
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%66%66%45%
1.531%34%31%28%
2.510%14%10%10%
3.53%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricOurense CFPonferradina
HATHAT
Clean sheets551061016
Failed to score29113710

Penalties

MetricOurense CFPonferradina
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricOurense CFPonferradina
Wins34
Draws22
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-23-00-3
Biggest losses1-33-01-32-0
Goals For4233
Goals Against3332

Model comparison

MetricOurense CFPonferradina
Form33%67%
Att38%63%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h36%64%
Goals33%67%
Total37.5%62.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ponferradina and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.70 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.95 @ Dafabet
Away3.20 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.81 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.44 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.38 @ Bet365
No1.65 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ourense CF = 0.69 (league 1.38), Ponferradina = 0.85 (league 1.04)

Ponferradina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ourense CF 0 21.4% 18.1% 7.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.8% 12.6% 5.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.2% 4.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 27.5% · Draw 36.0% · Away win 36.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1