Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Estadio de O Couto
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.36)
1.26 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.8% | 23.5% | 27.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.9%
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 0
8.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Zamora | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ourense CF | 0 | 4.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Ourense CF +7.5, Zamora +16.4.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Ourense CF
vs
Zamora
Elo gapZamora +9
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3051.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3051.8
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Ourense CF | Zamora |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1504.1 | 1547.7 |
| Form Elo | 1506.1 | 1559.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1538.2 | 1499.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1503.5 | 1496.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.6 | 1557.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +7.5 | +16.4 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Ourense CF last-5 Elo change: +7.5; Zamora last-5 Elo change: +16.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ourense CF | Zamora |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 67% |
| Attack | 67% | 89% |
| Defense | 44% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ourense CF | Zamora | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 50% | 6% | 27% | 53% | 31% | 42% |
| Draws | 25% | 41% | 33% | 29% | 31% | 30% |
| Loses | 25% | 53% | 39% | 18% | 38% | 27% |
Ourense CFDDLLLDDLDWDWWWLDLWLWLLLWLWLDDDLWD
ZamoraDDWDWLLLWLDLWWDWWWDLDWLDLDWWDWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Ourense CF | Zamora | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 10 | 37 | 25 | 19 | 44 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 18 | 20 | 38 | 15 | 22 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ourense CF | Zamora | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 64% | 67% | 73% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 36% | 42% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 12% | 15% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ourense CF | Zamora | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ourense CF | Zamora |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ourense CF | Zamora |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ourense CF | Zamora |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 55.8% | 44.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.46 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ Betano
Away2.91 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.73 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.45 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.53 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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