Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:15 •
Estadio Municipal de Pasarón
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.36)
1.15 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.8% | 25.3% | 28.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.0%
1 - 0
10.5%
2 - 1
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Celta de Vigo II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pontevedra | 0 | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Pontevedra +14.9, Celta de Vigo II +17.0.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Pontevedra
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Elo gapPontevedra +12
Home / draw / away37% / 29% / 34%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3144.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3144.5
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1560.7 | 1583.8 |
| Form Elo | 1562.6 | 1591.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1540.5 | 1536.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1515.6 | 1608.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1611.2 | 1503.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.9 | +17.0 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Pontevedra last-5 Elo change: +14.9; Celta de Vigo II last-5 Elo change: +17.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 67% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 44% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 38% | 41% | 39% | 59% | 44% | 52% |
| Draws | 56% | 24% | 39% | 24% | 31% | 27% |
| Loses | 6% | 35% | 21% | 18% | 25% | 21% |
PontevedraDWLLWWLDDWDDLDWWWWWDDWDLDDDDLWLWW
Celta de Vigo IIDLWWWWDLWDWLWWLWWWLDDWDWWDLDDWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 20 | 42 | 31 | 24 | 55 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 13 | 12 | 25 | 18 | 24 | 42 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 67% | 79% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 9% | 52% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 0% | 21% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 12% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pontevedra | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 54.0% | 46.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.17 @ Unibet
Draw3.30 @ Betfair
Away3.65 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.20 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.65 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.86 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…