Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Municipal da Malata
Expected Goals
1.81 (league 1.36)
2.19 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.5% | 20.4% | 44.6% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.0%
1 - 1
7.3%
2 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Real Avilés | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Racing Ferrol | 0 | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 3.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Racing Ferrol -17.4, Real Avilés +11.9.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Racing Ferrol
vs
Real Avilés
Elo gapRacing Ferrol +3
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo2943
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2943
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1455.6 | 1487.4 |
| Form Elo | 1451.3 | 1490 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1464.9 | 1497.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1381.3 | 1535.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1479.3 | 1441.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.4 | +11.9 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Racing Ferrol last-5 Elo change: -17.4; Real Avilés last-5 Elo change: +11.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 20% | 70% |
| Defense | 20% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 44% | 35% | 39% | 29% | 38% | 33% |
| Draws | 31% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 19% | 24% |
| Loses | 25% | 59% | 42% | 41% | 44% | 42% |
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Real AvilésLDWLWWWDLWWDLLWLWLLWLLLLDDLDDLWWD
League goals
| Metric | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 16 | 36 | 17 | 30 | 47 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 19 | 22 | 41 | 23 | 31 | 54 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 73% | 79% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 36% | 42% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 9% | 15% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 6% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 6-3 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Racing Ferrol | Real Avilés |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 22% | 78% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 46% | 54% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 35.4% | 64.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.91 @ Dafabet
Draw3.50 @ Unibet
Away4.28 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.85 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.94 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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