Sat, May 2 2026 • 16:30 •
Estadio Ruta de la Plata
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.36)
0.69 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.7% | 37.3% | 29.0% |
best score tips
0 - 0
23.2%
1 - 0
17.9%
0 - 1
16.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Ponferradina | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Zamora | 0 | 23.3% | 16.0% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.9% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.9% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Zamora carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zamora +25.7, Ponferradina +8.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Zamora
vs
Ponferradina
Elo gapZamora +40
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3113.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3113.6
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Zamora | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1559.1 | 1554.5 |
| Form Elo | 1578 | 1563.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1534.6 | 1517.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1503.5 | 1486.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1560.2 | 1568.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.7 | +8.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Zamora last-5 Elo change: +25.7; Ponferradina last-5 Elo change: +8.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Zamora | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 53% |
| Attack | 57% | 50% |
| Defense | 64% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Zamora | Ponferradina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 53% | 35% | 44% | 47% | 35% | 41% |
| Draws | 29% | 29% | 29% | 18% | 35% | 26% |
| Loses | 18% | 35% | 26% | 35% | 29% | 32% |
ZamoraDDWDWLLLWLDLWWDWWWDLDWLDLDWWDWLWWW
PonferradinaWLLLDLWWDWDDLLDLLLWWWWDWWWLDWDWLWD
League goals
| Metric | Zamora | Ponferradina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 21 | 46 | 25 | 13 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 15 | 23 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 29 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Zamora | Ponferradina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 62% | 68% | 47% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 32% | 29% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 15% | 12% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Zamora | Ponferradina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 18 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Zamora | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Zamora | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Zamora | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 29% | 71% |
| Total | 43.5% | 56.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…