Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 14:45 • Estadio Las Callejas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.40 (league 1.38) 0.92 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
15.7% 37.4% 46.8%
best score tips
0 - 0
26.6%
0 - 1
24.5%
0 - 2
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
UD Ourense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lealtad 0 26.6% 24.5% 11.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1%
1 10.7% 9.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLealtadUD Ourense
Played55
Form27%87%
Attack31%46%
Defense31%85%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.82 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lealtad UD Ourense
HATHAT
Played66126612
Wins17%0%8%50%33%42%
Draws50%17%33%17%50%33%
Loses33%83%58%33%17%25%

Form: Lealtad: DLDLLLDDLLWL • UD Ourense: LDLLDDWWWDWW

League goals

Metric Lealtad UD Ourense
HATHAT
GF total5385510
GF avg0.80.50.70.80.80.8
GA total71421448
GA avg1.22.31.80.70.70.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLealtadUD Ourense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%83%75%67%
1.517%58%8%0%
2.50%17%0%0%
3.50%17%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLealtadUD Ourense
HATHAT
Clean sheets202224
Failed to score246213

Penalties

MetricLealtadUD Ourense
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricLealtadUD Ourense
Wins13
Draws22
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-0—2-10-1
Biggest losses0-24-00-11-0
Goals For2221
Goals Against2411

Model comparison

MetricLealtadUD Ourense
Form24%76%
Att40%60%
Def18%82%
Poisson Distribution32%68%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total28.5%71.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or UD Ourense and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.13 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away2.63 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.53 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.13 @ Pinnacle
No1.73 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lealtad = 0.40 (league 1.38), UD Ourense = 0.92 (league 1.04)

UD Ourense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lealtad 0 26.6% 24.5% 11.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1%
1 10.7% 9.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.7% · Draw 37.4% · Away win 46.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1