Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 16:00 • Estadio O Couto
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.36) 0.80 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
35.0% 34.2% 30.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
18.6%
1 - 0
16.3%
0 - 1
14.9%
Score & goals probability table
Numancia
0 1 2 3 4 5
UD Ourense 0 18.6% 14.9% 6.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
1 16.3% 13.1% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 7.2% 5.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 2.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUD OurenseNumancia
Played55
Form87%67%
Attack46%62%
Defense85%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric UD Ourense Numancia
HATHAT
Played67137613
Wins50%43%46%71%33%54%
Draws17%43%31%14%33%23%
Loses33%14%23%14%33%23%

Form: UD Ourense: LDLLDDWWWDWWW • Numancia: DWLWLDWWWDLWW

League goals

Metric UD Ourense Numancia
HATHAT
GF total561113720
GF avg0.80.90.81.91.21.5
GA total4486915
GA avg0.70.60.60.91.51.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUD OurenseNumancia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%62%85%69%
1.58%0%46%23%
2.50%0%23%15%
3.50%0%0%8%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUD OurenseNumancia
HATHAT
Clean sheets235224
Failed to score213112

Penalties

MetricUD OurenseNumancia
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricUD OurenseNumancia
Wins33
Draws21
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-13-11-2
Biggest losses0-11-01-24-2
Goals For2132
Goals Against1124

Model comparison

MetricUD OurenseNumancia
Form57%43%
Att43%57%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total56.0%44.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : UD Ourense or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.45 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.90 @ Bet365
Away2.38 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.37 @ 188Bet
No1.62 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.80 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): UD Ourense = 0.88 (league 1.36), Numancia = 0.80 (league 1.05)

Numancia
0 1 2 3 4 5
UD Ourense 0 18.6% 14.9% 6.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
1 16.3% 13.1% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 7.2% 5.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 2.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 35.0% · Draw 34.2% · Away win 30.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1