Sun, Mar 1 2026 • 16:00 • Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.60 (league 1.41) 1.07 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
65.3% 16.4% 13.4%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.2%
2 - 0
8.6%
3 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Burgos Promesas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Numancia 0 2.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 6.6% 7.1% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.2% 4.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 7.4% 8.0% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 4.8% 5.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
5 2.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNumanciaBurgos Promesas
Played55
Form33%7%
Attack27%27%
Defense67%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Numancia Burgos Promesas
HATHAT
Played121224121224
Wins58%25%42%25%8%17%
Draws8%42%25%42%33%38%
Loses33%33%33%33%58%46%

Form: Numancia: DWLWLDWWWDLWWWLLLDWDLDWL • Burgos Promesas: LDDDLWLDDDDLLDLWLWWLDLLL

League goals

Metric Numancia Burgos Promesas
HATHAT
GF total191231151227
GF avg1.61.01.31.31.01.1
GA total131326152742
GA avg1.11.11.11.32.31.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNumanciaBurgos Promesas
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%71%79%79%
1.538%25%25%50%
2.517%8%8%25%
3.50%4%0%13%
4.50%0%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNumanciaBurgos Promesas
HATHAT
Clean sheets257325
Failed to score246235

Penalties

MetricNumanciaBurgos Promesas
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricNumanciaBurgos Promesas
Wins32
Draws14
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-33-01-2
Biggest losses1-24-20-25-1
Goals For3332
Goals Against2435

Model comparison

MetricNumanciaBurgos Promesas
Form83%17%
Att50%50%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total67.8%32.3%

Advice: Double chance : Numancia or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.40 @ William Hill
Draw4.33 @ Betfair
Away8.02 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.99 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.98 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.28 @ Pinnacle
No1.74 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Numancia = 2.60 (league 1.41), Burgos Promesas = 1.07 (league 1.03)

Burgos Promesas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Numancia 0 2.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 6.6% 7.1% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.2% 4.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 7.4% 8.0% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 4.8% 5.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
5 2.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 65.3% · Draw 16.4% · Away win 13.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1