Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 16:30 • Estadio Las Llanas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.82 (league 1.34) 0.52 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.9% 38.6% 21.5%
best score tips
0 - 0
26.2%
1 - 0
21.5%
0 - 1
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
Amorebieta
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sestao River 0 26.2% 13.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.5% 11.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.8% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSestao RiverAmorebieta
Played55
Form40%33%
Attack26%21%
Defense68%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sestao River Amorebieta
HATHAT
Played88169716
Wins50%38%44%44%29%38%
Draws38%50%44%33%29%31%
Loses13%13%13%22%43%31%

Form: Sestao River: DWWDDLWWWWDWDDDL • Amorebieta: LDWDWLWLWWDDLDWL

League goals

Metric Sestao River Amorebieta
HATHAT
GF total9112010616
GF avg1.11.41.31.10.91.0
GA total57126713
GA avg0.60.90.80.71.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSestao RiverAmorebieta
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%44%63%63%
1.538%25%31%13%
2.50%6%6%6%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSestao RiverAmorebieta
HATHAT
Clean sheets549336
Failed to score112426

Penalties

MetricSestao RiverAmorebieta
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 66.67%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 33.33%
Total13

Streaks

MetricSestao RiverAmorebieta
Wins42
Draws32
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-23-00-2
Biggest losses1-23-10-13-1
Goals For2232
Goals Against2313

Model comparison

MetricSestao RiverAmorebieta
Form55%45%
Att56%44%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h36%64%
Goals38%63%
Total47.8%52.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Amorebieta and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.77 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.25 @ Unibet
Away5.60 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.70 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.55 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.46 @ Pinnacle
No1.57 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sestao River = 0.82 (league 1.34), Amorebieta = 0.52 (league 1.04)

Amorebieta
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sestao River 0 26.2% 13.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.5% 11.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.8% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.9% · Draw 38.6% · Away win 21.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1