Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Campo Municipal de Urritxe
Expected Goals
0.87 (league 1.39)
0.67 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.8% | 35.9% | 26.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
21.4%
1 - 0
18.6%
0 - 1
14.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Sestao River | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Amorebieta | 0 | 21.4% | 14.4% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.6% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Amorebieta carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 44 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Amorebieta +19.3, Sestao River +1.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Amorebieta
vs
Sestao River
Elo gapAmorebieta +44
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3067.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3067.4
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Amorebieta | Sestao River |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1538.3 | 1529.1 |
| Form Elo | 1549.7 | 1520.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.8 | 1521.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1479 | 1495.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1580.4 | 1570.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +19.3 | +1.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Amorebieta last-5 Elo change: +19.3; Sestao River last-5 Elo change: +1.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Amorebieta | Sestao River |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 40% |
| Attack | 67% | 67% |
| Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Amorebieta | Sestao River | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 44% | 31% | 38% | 44% | 25% | 34% |
| Draws | 25% | 38% | 31% | 31% | 50% | 41% |
| Loses | 31% | 31% | 31% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
AmorebietaLDWDWLWLWWDDLDWLWLLLWDWLDDWDWWLD
Sestao RiverDWWDDLWWWWDWDDDLLWWLWDLDLLDWDDLD
League goals
| Metric | Amorebieta | Sestao River | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 18 | 35 | 22 | 16 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 11 | 20 | 31 | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Amorebieta | Sestao River | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 59% | 84% | 53% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 25% | 28% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 9% | 3% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Amorebieta | Sestao River | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Amorebieta | Sestao River |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Amorebieta | Sestao River |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Amorebieta | Sestao River |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 64% | 36% |
| Total | 58.2% | 41.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.41 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.25 @ Bet365
Away2.20 @ William Hill
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Marathonbet
No1.75 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.40 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365
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League standings
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