Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Artunduaga
Expected Goals
2.32 (league 1.39)
1.27 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.9% | 19.2% | 19.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 1
8.1%
2 - 0
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Gernika | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Basconia | 0 | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Basconia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 148 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Basconia +26.5, Gernika -2.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Basconia
vs
Gernika
Elo gapBasconia +148
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3094.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3094.6
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Basconia | Gernika |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1604 | 1490.6 |
| Form Elo | 1616.5 | 1472.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1553.7 | 1491.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1731.3 | 1454.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1575.4 | 1495.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +26.5 | -2.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Basconia last-5 Elo change: +26.5; Gernika last-5 Elo change: -2.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Basconia | Gernika |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 33% |
| Attack | 100% | 50% |
| Defense | 50% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Basconia | Gernika | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 17 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 40% | 24% | 31% | 50% | 25% | 38% |
| Draws | 40% | 41% | 41% | 19% | 25% | 22% |
| Loses | 20% | 35% | 28% | 31% | 50% | 41% |
BasconiaDDDLLLLWLLLDDDWWLDWDDWWWLDDDWWWD
GernikaLLWWDWWWDWLDLWDLWLWWWLLDLLLLDLWD
League goals
| Metric | Basconia | Gernika | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 21 | 50 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 18 | 24 | 42 | 13 | 27 | 40 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Basconia | Gernika | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 81% | 72% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 34% | 28% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 13% | 3% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 3% | 3% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Basconia | Gernika | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Basconia | Gernika |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Basconia | Gernika |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Basconia | Gernika |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 66% | 34% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 60.0% | 40.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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