Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio La Salera
Expected Goals
1.31 (league 1.39)
1.12 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.6% | 27.3% | 31.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
1 - 0
11.5%
0 - 1
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Beasain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Náxara | 0 | 8.8% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.5% | 12.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Náxara carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Náxara -2.8, Beasain +13.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Náxara
vs
Beasain
Elo gapNáxara +19
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3060.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3060.1
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Náxara | Beasain |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.9 | 1538.2 |
| Form Elo | 1519.3 | 1540.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1504.7 | 1529.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1566.1 | 1509.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1537.1 | 1559.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.8 | +13.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Náxara last-5 Elo change: -2.8; Beasain last-5 Elo change: +13.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Náxara | Beasain |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Attack | 58% | 50% |
| Defense | 33% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Náxara | Beasain | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 31% | 31% | 31% | 25% | 19% | 22% |
| Draws | 31% | 19% | 25% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Loses | 38% | 50% | 44% | 38% | 44% | 41% |
NáxaraDLLDDWLLWLWDLDWLWLLWLDLWWDLWDLWL
BeasainLLLDDLLLWDDDDLWWLDLDLWDDLLWWWDLD
League goals
| Metric | Náxara | Beasain | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 16 | 36 | 20 | 15 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 21 | 24 | 45 | 20 | 23 | 43 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Náxara | Beasain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 81% | 72% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 41% | 25% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 13% | 9% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 3% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Náxara | Beasain | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Náxara | Beasain |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Náxara | Beasain |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-1 | 1-5 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Náxara | Beasain |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 47.8% | 52.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…