Fri, May 1 2026 • 15:00 •
Stadium Gal
Expected Goals
3.65 (league 1.39)
0.96 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.1% | 9.0% | 5.6% |
best score tips
3 - 0
8.1%
3 - 1
7.7%
4 - 0
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Alfaro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Real Unión | 0 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 7.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Real Unión carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 247 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Real Unión -18.8, Alfaro +4.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Real Unión
vs
Alfaro
Elo gapReal Unión +247
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share81%
Combined Elo3012.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3012.4
Elo home share
81%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Real Unión | Alfaro |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1612.1 | 1400.3 |
| Form Elo | 1606.4 | 1403.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1555 | 1422.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1657.3 | 1414.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1553.2 | 1397.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.8 | +4.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Real Unión last-5 Elo change: -18.8; Alfaro last-5 Elo change: +4.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Real Unión | Alfaro |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 83% |
| Defense | 8% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Real Unión | Alfaro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 56% | 59% | 58% | 29% | 6% | 18% |
| Draws | 31% | 24% | 27% | 24% | 19% | 21% |
| Loses | 13% | 18% | 15% | 47% | 75% | 61% |
Real UniónWDWDDDLWDWWDWWWWWWLDDWWWWWLWWWLDL
AlfaroDLDLWLLLLLLWDLDLWDLLLLLWLDDLLWLWL
League goals
| Metric | Real Unión | Alfaro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 36 | 26 | 62 | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 14 | 21 | 35 | 23 | 35 | 58 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Real Unión | Alfaro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 67% | 58% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 55% | 24% | 27% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 12% | 9% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 3% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Real Unión | Alfaro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Real Unión | Alfaro |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Real Unión | Alfaro |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Real Unión | Alfaro |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 52% | 48% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 61.6% | 38.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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