Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 11:00 • Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.20) 0.82 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.9% 34.8% 32.3%
best score tips
0 - 0
19.4%
1 - 0
16.0%
0 - 1
15.8%
Score & goals probability table
Lorca Deportiva
0 1 2 3 4 5
Puente Genil 0 19.4% 15.8% 6.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 16.0% 13.0% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 6.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPuente GenilLorca Deportiva
Played55
Form53%47%
Attack42%33%
Defense67%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Puente Genil Lorca Deportiva
HATHAT
Played98179817
Wins33%25%29%56%38%47%
Draws67%13%41%22%25%24%
Loses0%63%29%22%38%29%

Form: Puente Genil: WWDDDLDWLLDLDWWDL • Lorca Deportiva: DLLDLDWWWWWWWLLDW

League goals

Metric Puente Genil Lorca Deportiva
HATHAT
GF total851381018
GF avg0.90.60.80.91.31.1
GA total511165914
GA avg0.61.40.90.61.10.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePuente GenilLorca Deportiva
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.559%71%71%53%
1.518%12%24%24%
2.50%6%12%6%
3.50%6%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPuente GenilLorca Deportiva
HATHAT
Clean sheets415538
Failed to score257325

Penalties

MetricPuente GenilLorca Deportiva
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricPuente GenilLorca Deportiva
Wins27
Draws31
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-22-11-3
Biggest losses—4-01-23-1
Goals For2223
Goals Against1423

Model comparison

MetricPuente GenilLorca Deportiva
Form53%47%
Att56%44%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total54.8%45.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Lorca Deportiva and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.03 @ 188Bet
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away4.74 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.88 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.45 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.45 @ Pinnacle
No1.72 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Puente Genil = 0.83 (league 1.20), Lorca Deportiva = 0.82 (league 0.96)

Lorca Deportiva
0 1 2 3 4 5
Puente Genil 0 19.4% 15.8% 6.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 16.0% 13.0% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 6.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.9% · Draw 34.8% · Away win 32.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1