Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez
Expected Goals
0.61 (league 1.30)
1.45 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 15.7% | 26.8% | 57.1% |
best score tips
0 - 1
18.4%
0 - 2
13.3%
0 - 0
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Águilas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Estepona | 0 | 12.7% | 18.4% | 13.3% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Estepona +34.1, Águilas +5.0.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Estepona
vs
Águilas
Elo gapÁguilas +3
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo3122.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3122.3
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Estepona | Águilas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1542.4 | 1579.9 |
| Form Elo | 1579 | 1581 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1477.4 | 1536.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1520.1 | 1499.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1507.4 | 1636.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +34.1 | +5.0 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Estepona last-5 Elo change: +34.1; Águilas last-5 Elo change: +5.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Estepona | Águilas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 60% |
| Attack | 75% | 58% |
| Defense | 58% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Estepona | Águilas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 19% | 50% | 34% | 63% | 44% | 53% |
| Draws | 38% | 6% | 22% | 19% | 25% | 22% |
| Loses | 44% | 44% | 44% | 19% | 31% | 25% |
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ÁguilasWDDLWWDWLWWWDWWDLWDLWWWDLWLLLWWW
League goals
| Metric | Estepona | Águilas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 21 | 37 | 26 | 16 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 21 | 21 | 42 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Estepona | Águilas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 72% | 75% | 59% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 41% | 38% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 13% | 19% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Estepona | Águilas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Estepona | Águilas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Estepona | Águilas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 9 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Estepona | Águilas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 28% | 72% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 47.0% | 53.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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