Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio de La Condomina
Expected Goals
1.61 (league 1.30)
0.80 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.8% | 24.9% | 18.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.4%
1 - 1
11.6%
2 - 0
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Real Jaén | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ucam Murcia | 0 | 9.0% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.6% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Ucam Murcia +3.0, Real Jaén -2.5.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Ucam Murcia
vs
Real Jaén
Elo gapUcam Murcia +5
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo3156.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3156.2
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1563.1 | 1593.1 |
| Form Elo | 1560.6 | 1605.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1563.8 | 1523.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1568.6 | 1525.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1542.5 | 1606.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.0 | -2.5 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Ucam Murcia last-5 Elo change: +3.0; Real Jaén last-5 Elo change: -2.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 60% |
| Attack | 75% | 50% |
| Defense | 42% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 69% | 31% | 50% | 69% | 25% | 47% |
| Draws | 25% | 19% | 22% | 13% | 44% | 28% |
| Loses | 6% | 50% | 28% | 19% | 31% | 25% |
Ucam MurciaLWDDDWWWDLWLWWWLWLWWDLWLWDDWWLWL
Real JaénDLWWWDDWDLLWLLLDWDWDDWWWWDWLWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 18 | 48 | 25 | 15 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 13 | 25 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 31 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 78% | 72% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 34% | 38% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 3% | 13% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ucam Murcia | Real Jaén |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 52.8% | 47.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.90 @ Betano
Draw3.25 @ Betfair
Away4.06 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.67 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.92 @ Marathonbet
No1.77 @ 1xBet
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League standings
Loading standings…