Sun, May 3 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio El Rubial
Expected Goals
1.95 (league 1.32)
0.54 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.6% | 19.6% | 9.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.3%
2 - 0
15.8%
3 - 0
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Almería II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Águilas | 0 | 8.4% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.3% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.8% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Águilas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 211 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Águilas +7.8, Almería II -18.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Águilas
vs
Almería II
Elo gapÁguilas +211
Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%
Expected home share77%
Combined Elo2963
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2963
Elo home share
77%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Águilas | Almería II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1569.5 | 1393.5 |
| Form Elo | 1562.7 | 1378.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1529.8 | 1443.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1497.8 | 1403.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1630.2 | 1447.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +7.8 | -18.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Águilas last-5 Elo change: +7.8; Almería II last-5 Elo change: -18.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Águilas | Almería II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 13% |
| Attack | 44% | 38% |
| Defense | 81% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Águilas | Almería II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 63% | 41% | 52% | 12% | 13% | 12% |
| Draws | 19% | 24% | 21% | 35% | 19% | 27% |
| Loses | 19% | 35% | 27% | 53% | 69% | 61% |
ÁguilasWDDLWWDWLWWWDWWDLWDLWWWDLWLLLWWWL
Almería IILWLLLLLLLDWWDLDDLLLDLDLWLDLLLDLDL
League goals
| Metric | Águilas | Almería II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 17 | 43 | 15 | 11 | 26 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 11 | 14 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 51 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Águilas | Almería II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 61% | 58% | 91% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 12% | 12% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 3% | 6% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Águilas | Almería II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Águilas | Almería II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Águilas | Almería II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Águilas | Almería II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 82% | 18% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 79% | 21% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 62% | 38% |
| Total | 71.2% | 28.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…