Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta
Expected Goals
1.37 (league 1.43)
0.93 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | 27.5% | 25.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.8%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Tenerife II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Conquense | 0 | 10.0% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.8% | 12.8% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.5% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Conquense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 111 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Conquense -24.6, Tenerife II -3.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Conquense
vs
Tenerife II
Elo gapConquense +111
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3085.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3085.5
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Conquense | Tenerife II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1580.8 | 1504.7 |
| Form Elo | 1582.6 | 1505.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1556.1 | 1504.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1507.3 | 1602.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1596.3 | 1419.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -24.6 | -3.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Conquense last-5 Elo change: -24.6; Tenerife II last-5 Elo change: -3.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Conquense | Tenerife II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 40% |
| Attack | 33% | 67% |
| Defense | 47% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Conquense | Tenerife II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 63% | 25% | 44% | 38% | 56% | 47% |
| Draws | 25% | 50% | 38% | 25% | 6% | 16% |
| Loses | 13% | 25% | 19% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
ConquenseLLWDWDDDWDDWDDWDLWLWWWWDWWWDLDWL
Tenerife IIWWWDWLWLLLWLDLWLDWWWDWLWLDWLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Conquense | Tenerife II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 17 | 40 | 29 | 27 | 56 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 10 | 20 | 30 | 26 | 23 | 49 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Conquense | Tenerife II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 59% | 91% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 25% | 50% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 3% | 28% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 6% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Conquense | Tenerife II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Conquense | Tenerife II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Conquense | Tenerife II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-2 | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Conquense | Tenerife II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 41.5% | 58.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.90 @ Betano
Draw3.50 @ Marathonbet
Away3.88 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.93 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.72 @ Betano
No2.00 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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