Fri, Jan 16 2026 • 19:00 • Moor Farm Training Centre
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.85) 3.16 (league 1.67)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
10.0% 12.8% 67.0%
best score tips
1 - 3
8.1%
1 - 2
7.7%
0 - 3
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
Aston Villa U21
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby County U21 0 1.4% 4.3% 6.8% 7.2% 5.7% 3.6%
1 1.5% 4.9% 7.7% 8.1% 6.4% 4.1%
2 0.9% 2.8% 4.4% 4.6% 3.6% 2.3%
3 0.3% 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerby County U21Aston Villa U21
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack38%33%
Defense46%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby County U21 Aston Villa U21
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins0%20%11%20%75%44%
Draws0%20%11%20%0%11%
Loses100%60%78%60%25%44%

Form: Derby County U21: LLLLLLDLW • Aston Villa U21: LWLWWDLLW

League goals

Metric Derby County U21 Aston Villa U21
HATHAT
GF total013136915
GF avg0.02.61.41.22.31.7
GA total9162510616
GA avg2.33.22.82.01.51.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerby County U21Aston Villa U21
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%100%67%89%
1.533%78%56%67%
2.533%67%44%22%
3.522%33%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerby County U21Aston Villa U21
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score404213

Penalties

MetricDerby County U21Aston Villa U21
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricDerby County U21Aston Villa U21
Wins02
Draws11
Losses62

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-42-01-3
Biggest losses0-34-10-31-0
Goals For0433
Goals Against3432

Model comparison

MetricDerby County U21Aston Villa U21
Form36%64%
Att53%47%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h0%100%
Goals15%85%
Total35.5%64.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Aston Villa U21

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.32 @ Betano
Draw4.20 @ Unibet
Away2.55 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.40 @ Pinnacle
No3.10 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby County U21 = 1.13 (league 1.85), Aston Villa U21 = 3.16 (league 1.67)

Aston Villa U21
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby County U21 0 1.4% 4.3% 6.8% 7.2% 5.7% 3.6%
1 1.5% 4.9% 7.7% 8.1% 6.4% 4.1%
2 0.9% 2.8% 4.4% 4.6% 3.6% 2.3%
3 0.3% 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.0% · Draw 12.8% · Away win 67.0%

vtt 3 , vtd1