Mon, Feb 23 2026 • 19:00 • Lancashire County Ground
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.07 (league 1.86) 2.39 (league 1.67)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
15.2% 18.0% 63.2%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.6%
0 - 2
9.0%
1 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Derby County U21
0 1 2 3 4 5
Burnley U21 0 3.2% 7.6% 9.0% 7.2% 4.3% 2.0%
1 3.4% 8.0% 9.6% 7.7% 4.6% 2.2%
2 1.8% 4.3% 5.1% 4.1% 2.4% 1.2%
3 0.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBurnley U21Derby County U21
Played55
Form13%40%
Attack26%26%
Defense21%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)15 | 38 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

76%
FT probability

3.5+

54%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Burnley U21 Derby County U21
HATHAT
Played77146713
Wins0%29%14%0%14%8%
Draws14%14%14%33%29%31%
Loses86%57%71%67%57%62%

Form: Burnley U21: LWLLLLWLLLDLLD • Derby County U21: LLLLLLDLWDLDD

League goals

Metric Burnley U21 Derby County U21
HATHAT
GF total4131701414
GF avg0.61.91.20.02.01.1
GA total14193392332
GA avg2.02.72.41.53.32.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBurnley U21Derby County U21
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%100%46%85%
1.529%71%23%62%
2.514%29%23%54%
3.57%7%15%31%
4.50%7%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBurnley U21Derby County U21
HATHAT
Clean sheets000202
Failed to score314617

Penalties

MetricBurnley U21Derby County U21
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricBurnley U21Derby County U21
Wins11
Draws11
Losses46

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-4—1-4
Biggest losses0-38-10-36-0
Goals For1404
Goals Against3836

Model comparison

MetricBurnley U21Derby County U21
Form25%75%
Att50%50%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution29%71%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total34.8%65.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Derby County U21

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.24 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.99 @ Pinnacle
Away2.95 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.40 @ Pinnacle
No2.95 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Burnley U21 = 1.07 (league 1.86), Derby County U21 = 2.39 (league 1.67)

Derby County U21
0 1 2 3 4 5
Burnley U21 0 3.2% 7.6% 9.0% 7.2% 4.3% 2.0%
1 3.4% 8.0% 9.6% 7.7% 4.6% 2.2%
2 1.8% 4.3% 5.1% 4.1% 2.4% 1.2%
3 0.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.2% · Draw 18.0% · Away win 63.2%

vtt 5 , vtd1