Pro League — Saudi-Arabia
Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 16:10 • King Abdullah Sports City Stadium
Not Started

Al Najma

—

Al Taawon

Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.63) 2.61 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
11.5% 15.7% 67.8%
best score tips
0 - 2
9.6%
1 - 2
9.2%
0 - 3
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Al Taawon
0 1 2 3 4 5
Al Najma 0 2.8% 7.4% 9.6% 8.4% 5.4% 2.8%
1 2.7% 7.1% 9.2% 8.0% 5.2% 2.7%
2 1.3% 3.4% 4.4% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3%
3 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away strong edge

Al Taawon carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 104 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al Najma -19.5, Al Taawon +7.6.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Al Najma Elo 1408.3 · -19.5
vs
Al Taawon Elo 1547 · +7.6
Elo gapAl Taawon +104
Home / draw / away29% / 18% / 53%
Expected home share36%
Combined Elo2955.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2955.3
Elo home share 36%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Al Najma Al Taawon
Overall Elo1408.31547
Form Elo1395.31536.4
Home / Away Elo1469.81518.2
Attack Elo1458.81587.5
Defense Elo1354.31545
Last 5 Elo change-19.5+7.6

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Al Najma last-5 Elo change: -19.5; Al Taawon last-5 Elo change: +7.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAl NajmaAl Taawon
Played55
Form20%40%
Attack50%75%
Defense0%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)16 | 3.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

92%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Al Najma Al Taawon
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins14%0%7%50%43%46%
Draws21%14%18%29%21%25%
Loses64%86%75%21%36%29%
Al NajmaLLLLLLLLDLLDLLDDLDLLWLLLLLLW
Al TaawonLWWWWWWWDWWLWLWDLWLDLLDDWDDL

League goals

Metric Al Najma Al Taawon
HATHAT
GF total171027272350
GF avg1.20.71.01.91.61.8
GA total323567191837
GA avg2.32.52.41.41.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAl NajmaAl Taawon
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.568%93%86%79%
1.525%64%50%39%
2.54%46%21%7%
3.50%25%11%4%
4.50%11%7%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAl NajmaAl Taawon
HATHAT
Clean sheets022426
Failed to score369134

Penalties

MetricAl NajmaAl Taawon
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total26

Streaks

MetricAl NajmaAl Taawon
Wins17
Draws22
Losses82

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—6-12-5
Biggest losses0-55-10-52-1
Goals For3265
Goals Against5552

Model comparison

MetricAl NajmaAl Taawon
Form33%67%
Att40%60%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution27%73%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total34.0%66.0%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.60 @ 10Bet
Draw4.34 @ Pinnacle
Away1.65 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.30 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.73 @ Betfair
No2.10 @ William Hill
📊

League standings

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