Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 18:00 •
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium
Expected Goals
2.76 (league 1.63)
0.75 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.2% | 13.2% | 7.5% |
best score tips
2 - 0
11.4%
3 - 0
10.5%
2 - 1
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Al Najma | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 0 | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.5% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Al Khaleej Saihat carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 95 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al Khaleej Saihat -10.6, Al Najma -12.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Al Khaleej Saihat
vs
Al Najma
Elo gapAl Khaleej Saihat +95
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2859.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2859.4
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1459.5 | 1399.9 |
| Form Elo | 1445.7 | 1384.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1457.2 | 1454.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1567.7 | 1456.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1412.2 | 1352.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.6 | -12.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Al Khaleej Saihat last-5 Elo change: -10.6; Al Najma last-5 Elo change: -12.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 20% |
| Attack | 50% | 50% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 16 | 3.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 38% | 21% | 30% | 14% | 0% | 7% |
| Draws | 15% | 36% | 26% | 21% | 14% | 18% |
| Loses | 46% | 43% | 44% | 64% | 86% | 75% |
Al Khaleej SaihatWWLLWDDWLLLDWWWLDLLDDLLLWLD
Al NajmaLLLLLLLLDLLDLLDDLDLLWLLLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 23 | 46 | 17 | 10 | 27 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 19 | 27 | 46 | 32 | 35 | 67 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 89% | 68% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 37% | 25% | 64% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 26% | 4% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 15% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 11% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 8 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-4 | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 4-1 | 0-5 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat | Al Najma |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 57.2% | 42.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…