Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 16:00 •
Al-Shabab Club Stadium
Expected Goals
1.77 (league 1.62)
1.42 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.1% | 23.1% | 30.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.3%
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 2
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Al-Fateh | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al Shabab | 0 | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Al Shabab carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 63 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al Shabab +5.6, Al-Fateh -23.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Al Shabab
vs
Al-Fateh
Elo gapAl Shabab +63
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3025.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3025.2
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1526.6 | 1498.6 |
| Form Elo | 1533.7 | 1484.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1517.2 | 1484.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1680 | 1527.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1499.2 | 1464.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.6 | -23.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Al Shabab last-5 Elo change: +5.6; Al-Fateh last-5 Elo change: -23.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 27% |
| Attack | 90% | 40% |
| Defense | 10% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 15 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| Wins | 38% | 13% | 25% | 40% | 15% | 29% |
| Draws | 23% | 47% | 36% | 20% | 31% | 25% |
| Loses | 38% | 40% | 39% | 40% | 54% | 46% |
Al ShababLWDLDDLDDLLLLWLDDWWLLWWLDWDD
Al-FatehLLDLLWDLLWWWWWDLLDDDLLWDLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 15 | 36 | 21 | 14 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 24 | 18 | 42 | 24 | 24 | 48 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 75% | 79% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 18% | 7% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 11% | 0% | 18% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 11% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 10 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 10 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 2-5 | 2-0 | 2-5 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 41% | 59% |
| Total | 50.8% | 49.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.84 @ Dafabet
Draw4.20 @ Pinnacle
Away3.88 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.52 @ Betano
Under 2.52.63 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.50 @ Bet365
No2.63 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…