Pro League — Saudi-Arabia
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 18:00 • Al-Awwal Park
Not Started

Al-Nassr

—

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Expected Goals
1.03 (league 1.62) 0.70 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.6% 32.9% 24.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
18.2%
0 - 0
17.6%
1 - 1
12.8%
Score & goals probability table
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0 1 2 3 4 5
Al-Nassr 0 17.7% 12.4% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 18.2% 12.8% 4.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.4% 6.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Al-Nassr carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 45 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al-Nassr +19.7, Al-Ahli Jeddah -4.3.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Al-Nassr Elo 1791.2 · +19.7
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah Elo 1781.7 · -4.3
Elo gapAl-Nassr +45
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3572.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3572.9
Elo home share 56%
Match tone Strong Watch
Metric Al-Nassr Al-Ahli Jeddah
Overall Elo1791.21781.7
Form Elo1813.21786.3
Home / Away Elo1623.31644.5
Attack Elo2005.61836.6
Defense Elo1735.71728.3
Last 5 Elo change+19.7-4.3

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Al-Nassr last-5 Elo change: +19.7; Al-Ahli Jeddah last-5 Elo change: -4.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAl-NassrAl-Ahli Jeddah
Played55
Form100%67%
Attack100%100%
Defense80%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)14 | 2.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

83%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Al-Nassr Al-Ahli Jeddah
HATHAT
Played141529141428
Wins93%80%86%79%64%71%
Draws0%7%3%21%21%21%
Loses7%13%10%0%14%7%
Al-NassrWWWWWWWWWWDLLLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
Al-Ahli JeddahWDDWDWDWWLWWWWWWWWDWWWWWWLWD

League goals

Metric Al-Nassr Al-Ahli Jeddah
HATHAT
GF total394079352055
GF avg2.82.72.72.51.42.0
GA total10112112820
GA avg0.70.70.70.90.60.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAl-NassrAl-Ahli Jeddah
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%45%93%46%
1.579%21%54%18%
2.545%7%32%7%
3.528%0%14%0%
4.521%0%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAl-NassrAl-Ahli Jeddah
HATHAT
Clean sheets791651015
Failed to score000022

Penalties

MetricAl-NassrAl-Ahli Jeddah
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total87

Streaks

MetricAl-NassrAl-Ahli Jeddah
Wins108
Draws12
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-54-02-5
Biggest losses1-23-1—3-2
Goals For5545
Goals Against2333

Model comparison

MetricAl-NassrAl-Ahli Jeddah
Form60%40%
Att58%42%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h62%38%
Goals53%47%
Total60.3%39.7%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.88 @ Dafabet
Draw4.25 @ Betano
Away3.90 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.57 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.55 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ William Hill
No2.55 @ Betfair
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League standings

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