Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 18:00 •
Al-Hazem Club Stadium
Expected Goals
1.35 (league 1.62)
1.80 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.7% | 23.0% | 47.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.4%
1 - 2
9.4%
0 - 1
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Al-Fayha | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al Kholood | 0 | 4.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Al Kholood carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 18 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al Kholood -6.2, Al-Fayha +14.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Al Kholood
vs
Al-Fayha
Elo gapAl Kholood +18
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2967.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2967.9
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1475.5 | 1492.4 |
| Form Elo | 1479.7 | 1503.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1473.3 | 1463.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1525.5 | 1449.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1358.2 | 1497.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.2 | +14.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Al Kholood last-5 Elo change: -6.2; Al-Fayha last-5 Elo change: +14.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 60% | 70% |
| Defense | 0% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 21% | 40% | 31% | 36% | 27% | 31% |
| Draws | 7% | 7% | 7% | 43% | 7% | 24% |
| Loses | 71% | 53% | 62% | 21% | 67% | 45% |
Al KholoodLLWWWLLLLLLWLLLWLLDWLLWWLLDLW
Al-FayhaWLDWDLLWLDLLDLDLWWLWLWDLWWLDL
League goals
| Metric | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 22 | 38 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 30 | 27 | 57 | 15 | 30 | 45 |
| GA avg | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 62% | 90% | 69% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 62% | 31% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 24% | 14% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 14% | 3% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 3% | 3% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 6 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-5 | 3-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 6-0 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al Kholood | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 21% | 79% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 88% | 13% |
| Total | 50.3% | 49.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.75 @ Betano
Draw3.44 @ 1xBet
Away2.70 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.87 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.98 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.25 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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