Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 16:00 •
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium
Expected Goals
0.94 (league 1.63)
2.29 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.0% | 18.3% | 64.7% |
best score tips
0 - 2
10.3%
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al Riyadh | 0 | 3.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 3.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | |
| 2 | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 219 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al Riyadh +20.9, Al-Qadisiyah FC -5.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Al Riyadh
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Elo gapAl-Qadisiyah FC +219
Home / draw / away18% / 18% / 64%
Expected home share22%
Combined Elo3085.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3085.5
Elo home share
22%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1416 | 1669.5 |
| Form Elo | 1428.5 | 1669 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1462.7 | 1549.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1422.7 | 1754.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1414.4 | 1583.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.9 | -5.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Al Riyadh last-5 Elo change: +20.9; Al-Qadisiyah FC last-5 Elo change: -5.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Attack | 80% | 100% |
| Defense | 10% | 10% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 21% | 13% | 17% | 60% | 64% | 62% |
| Draws | 36% | 20% | 28% | 40% | 14% | 28% |
| Loses | 43% | 67% | 55% | 0% | 21% | 10% |
Al RiyadhLWLLLWDDLLLLDLLDDDLLDWLLLWDWL
Al-Qadisiyah FCWDWWWDLWLDWWWWWWWDWDWWWDWWLDD
League goals
| Metric | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 15 | 30 | 35 | 32 | 67 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 19 | 35 | 54 | 12 | 19 | 31 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 93% | 93% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 21% | 52% | 66% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 28% | 41% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 24% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 7 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-1 | — | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 29% | 71% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 37.7% | 62.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home7.00 @ Unibet
Draw5.03 @ Pinnacle
Away1.49 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.47 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.62 @ Unibet
No2.38 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…