Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 18:00 •
Kingdom Arena
Expected Goals
3.07 (league 1.63)
0.45 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 79.2% | 8.7% | 3.0% |
best score tips
3 - 0
14.3%
2 - 0
14.0%
4 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Damac | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 0 | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.0% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.0% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 363 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al-Hilal Saudi FC +9.7, Damac +35.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
vs
Damac
Elo gapAl-Hilal Saudi FC +363
Home / draw / away73% / 18% / 9%
Expected home share89%
Combined Elo3223.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3223.6
Elo home share
89%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1775.7 | 1447.9 |
| Form Elo | 1778.2 | 1466.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1630 | 1458.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1960.8 | 1390 |
| Defense Elo | 1697.4 | 1497.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.7 | +35.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Al-Hilal Saudi FC last-5 Elo change: +9.7; Damac last-5 Elo change: +35.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 67% |
| Attack | 100% | 90% |
| Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 18 | 3.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 13 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 73% | 69% | 71% | 20% | 14% | 17% |
| Draws | 27% | 31% | 29% | 40% | 36% | 38% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% | 50% | 45% |
Al-Hilal Saudi FCWDDWWWWWWWWWWWWWDDDWWDDWWWDW
DamacDLLLLDDDDDWLLDDLLLDLWLLDWWLDW
League goals
| Metric | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 38 | 37 | 75 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 11 | 14 | 25 | 18 | 28 | 46 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 96% | 57% | 72% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 79% | 25% | 14% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 7% | 7% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 13 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 0 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 0-6 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 1-3 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Damac |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 88% | 12% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 68.3% | 31.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.16 @ Betano
Draw10.30 @ 1xBet
Away17.00 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.36 @ Unibet
Under 2.53.50 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.96 @ Unibet
No1.85 @ William Hill
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League standings
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