Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
City Football Academy
Expected Goals
3.50 (league 2.28)
0.85 (league 1.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.5% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
best score tips
3 - 0
9.3%
4 - 0
8.1%
2 - 0
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Middlesbrough U18 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Manchester City U18 | 0 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.3% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.1% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Manchester City U18 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 251 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Manchester City U18 +10.2, Middlesbrough U18 +15.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Manchester City U18
vs
Middlesbrough U18
Elo gapManchester City U18 +251
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share81%
Combined Elo3217.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3217.3
Elo home share
81%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1716.7 | 1500.6 |
| Form Elo | 1715.3 | 1522.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1587.9 | 1498.6 |
| Attack Elo | 2044 | 1623.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1657.8 | 1384.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +10.2 | +15.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Manchester City U18 last-5 Elo change: +10.2; Middlesbrough U18 last-5 Elo change: +15.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 60% |
| Attack | 56% | 60% |
| Defense | 84% | 80% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 15 | 3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
60%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 12 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 80% | 75% | 77% | 50% | 45% | 48% |
| Draws | 0% | 17% | 9% | 17% | 9% | 13% |
| Loses | 20% | 8% | 14% | 33% | 45% | 39% |
Manchester City U18WWWWWLWWWWWWWLWWLDWDWW
Middlesbrough U18WLDWDDWWLLLLLWWLWWWLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 42 | 37 | 79 | 28 | 15 | 43 |
| GF avg | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 12 | 15 | 27 | 14 | 21 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 64% | 74% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 86% | 36% | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 23% | 26% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 0% | 9% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 36% | 0% | 9% | 9% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 8 | 88.89% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 11.11% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 9 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-0 | 0-5 | 9-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 7 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Manchester City U18 | Middlesbrough U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 48% | 52% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 96% | 4% |
| Total | 67.2% | 32.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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