Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 11:30 •
Staplewood Training Ground
Expected Goals
2.71 (league 2.07)
2.83 (league 1.98)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.8% | 17.2% | 36.9% |
best score tips
2 - 2
5.8%
2 - 3
5.4%
3 - 2
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Aston Villa U18 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Southampton U18 | 0 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 1.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Aston Villa U18 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 33 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Southampton U18 -13.8, Aston Villa U18 +17.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Southampton U18
vs
Aston Villa U18
Elo gapAston Villa U18 +33
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3070.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3070.9
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1501.6 | 1569.3 |
| Form Elo | 1476.2 | 1575.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1544.9 | 1542 |
| Attack Elo | 1765.9 | 1702.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1329.3 | 1442.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.8 | +17.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Southampton U18 last-5 Elo change: -13.8; Aston Villa U18 last-5 Elo change: +17.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 73% |
| Attack | 50% | 90% |
| Defense | 35% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 18 | 3.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
67%
FT probability
BTTS
88%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 13 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 22 |
| Wins | 60% | 23% | 39% | 54% | 56% | 55% |
| Draws | 10% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 11% | 14% |
| Loses | 30% | 69% | 52% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
Southampton U18WLWDWWLWLWLWLLLDLLWLLWL
Aston Villa U18WLLWWLWWLWWLLDWLWDWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 24 | 52 | 32 | 25 | 57 |
| GF avg | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| GA total | 20 | 36 | 56 | 24 | 18 | 42 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 91% | 87% | 86% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 61% | 74% | 64% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 43% | 45% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 22% | 27% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 17% | 13% | 27% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 2-5 | 6-0 | 2-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-6 | 5-2 | 0-4 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Southampton U18 | Aston Villa U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35% | 65% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 41.5% | 58.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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