Sat, May 2 2026 • 10:30 •
The Leicester City Training Ground
Expected Goals
0.81 (league 2.10)
1.28 (league 1.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.3% | 28.9% | 47.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.9%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Arsenal U18 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Leicester City U18 | 0 | 12.4% | 15.9% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Leicester City U18 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 23 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Leicester City U18 -24.2, Arsenal U18 -20.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Leicester City U18
vs
Arsenal U18
Elo gapLeicester City U18 +23
Home / draw / away38% / 27% / 35%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2932.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2932.1
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1460 | 1472.1 |
| Form Elo | 1449.4 | 1453.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1470.3 | 1527.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1560.2 | 1626.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1323.5 | 1323.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -24.2 | -20.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Leicester City U18 last-5 Elo change: -24.2; Arsenal U18 last-5 Elo change: -20.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 27% |
| Attack | 21% | 42% |
| Defense | 54% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| Wins | 38% | 38% | 38% | 23% | 45% | 33% |
| Draws | 23% | 15% | 19% | 15% | 18% | 17% |
| Loses | 38% | 46% | 42% | 62% | 36% | 50% |
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League goals
| Metric | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 28 | 45 | 25 | 15 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 23 | 24 | 47 | 37 | 14 | 51 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 88% | 83% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 46% | 50% | 58% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 31% | 21% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 8% | 4% | 21% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-4 | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 4-2 | 2-6 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Leicester City U18 | Arsenal U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 38.8% | 61.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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