Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:30 •
Sportpark De Koerbelt
Expected Goals
0.65 (league 1.81)
1.36 (league 1.55)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 17.8% | 28.2% | 53.8% |
best score tips
0 - 1
18.3%
0 - 0
13.5%
0 - 2
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Harkemase Boys | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Excelsior '31 | 0 | 13.5% | 18.3% | 12.4% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Harkemase Boys carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 68 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Excelsior '31 +10.9, Harkemase Boys -29.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Excelsior '31
vs
Harkemase Boys
Elo gapHarkemase Boys +68
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo2961.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2961.9
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1429.3 | 1532.6 |
| Form Elo | 1426.4 | 1530.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1456.1 | 1539.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1491 | 1553.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1371.5 | 1515.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +10.9 | -29.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Excelsior '31 last-5 Elo change: +10.9; Harkemase Boys last-5 Elo change: -29.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 42% | 11% |
| Defense | 63% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 33% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 38% |
| Draws | 13% | 7% | 10% | 43% | 27% | 34% |
| Loses | 53% | 60% | 57% | 21% | 33% | 28% |
Excelsior '31LWWLLLLLLWLLWWLWLLDWWLDLLWWLDL
Harkemase BoysWWDWLDDDDDLLWLLWDWLWWDWWWLDLD
League goals
| Metric | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 23 | 43 | 25 | 21 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 22 | 31 | 53 | 20 | 14 | 34 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 80% | 86% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 57% | 38% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 28% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Excelsior '31 | Harkemase Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 80% | 20% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 39% | 61% |
| Total | 47.8% | 52.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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