Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Sportpark Zuid DVS '33
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.81)
0.76 (league 1.55)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | 23.2% | 15.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.3%
2 - 0
12.5%
1 - 1
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Sportlust '46 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| DVS 33 Ermelo | 0 | 8.3% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.3% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
DVS 33 Ermelo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 65 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: DVS 33 Ermelo +5.5, Sportlust '46 -13.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
DVS 33 Ermelo
vs
Sportlust '46
Elo gapDVS 33 Ermelo +65
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3092.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3092.8
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1561.4 | 1531.4 |
| Form Elo | 1569.1 | 1520 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1559 | 1534.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1562.1 | 1612.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1554.1 | 1524.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.5 | -13.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. DVS 33 Ermelo last-5 Elo change: +5.5; Sportlust '46 last-5 Elo change: -13.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 40% |
| Attack | 53% | 42% |
| Defense | 63% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 16 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 57% | 38% | 47% | 53% | 40% | 47% |
| Draws | 36% | 31% | 33% | 20% | 13% | 17% |
| Loses | 7% | 31% | 20% | 27% | 47% | 37% |
DVS 33 ErmeloDDWWWWDWWLDLWDLWWDWLLDWDWLDWWD
Sportlust '46WWWWLWDWWLWLLDLLDWWLWDDLWLWWLL
League goals
| Metric | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 22 | 51 | 32 | 20 | 52 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 12 | 22 | 34 | 19 | 23 | 42 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 57% | 77% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 40% | 50% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 10% | 27% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 7% | 17% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 5-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | DVS 33 Ermelo | Sportlust '46 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 35% | 65% |
| Total | 48.8% | 51.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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