Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:30 •
Sportpark Kort Scheiwijk
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.77)
1.62 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.8% | 24.6% | 46.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
0 - 1
9.8%
1 - 2
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Groene Ster | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| SteDoCo | 0 | 6.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Groene Ster carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 42 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: SteDoCo -34.4, Groene Ster +5.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
SteDoCo
vs
Groene Ster
Elo gapGroene Ster +42
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2858.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2858.4
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | SteDoCo | Groene Ster |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1390.7 | 1467.7 |
| Form Elo | 1364.4 | 1455.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1447.6 | 1484.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1407.5 | 1459.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1382.5 | 1469.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -34.4 | +5.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. SteDoCo last-5 Elo change: -34.4; Groene Ster last-5 Elo change: +5.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | SteDoCo | Groene Ster |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 47% |
| Attack | 29% | 53% |
| Defense | 29% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | SteDoCo | Groene Ster | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 27% | 27% | 27% | 47% | 13% | 30% |
| Draws | 7% | 20% | 13% | 13% | 33% | 23% |
| Loses | 67% | 53% | 60% | 40% | 53% | 47% |
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Groene SterLDWDDLWLLWWLWWLLDDDLLWLLLWLDLW
League goals
| Metric | SteDoCo | Groene Ster | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 11 | 27 | 22 | 18 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 30 | 25 | 55 | 21 | 28 | 49 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | SteDoCo | Groene Ster | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 83% | 67% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 50% | 43% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 33% | 20% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 13% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | SteDoCo | Groene Ster | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | SteDoCo | Groene Ster |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | SteDoCo | Groene Ster |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 7 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-0 | 0-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | SteDoCo | Groene Ster |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 13% | 88% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 78% | 22% |
| Total | 45.8% | 54.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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