Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Sportpark Marsana
Expected Goals
1.00 (league 1.77)
2.30 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.8% | 18.4% | 63.7% |
best score tips
0 - 2
9.8%
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 1
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Vvsb | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Meerssen | 0 | 3.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 3.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | |
| 2 | 1.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Vvsb carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 131 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Meerssen +25.2, Vvsb +23.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Meerssen
vs
Vvsb
Elo gapVvsb +131
Home / draw / away26% / 18% / 56%
Expected home share32%
Combined Elo2966.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2966.3
Elo home share
32%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Meerssen | Vvsb |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1400.2 | 1566.1 |
| Form Elo | 1412.9 | 1576.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1420 | 1503.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1417.4 | 1698.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1412 | 1504.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.2 | +23.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Meerssen last-5 Elo change: +25.2; Vvsb last-5 Elo change: +23.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Meerssen | Vvsb |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 80% |
| Attack | 29% | 76% |
| Defense | 53% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
92%
FT probability
2.5+
65%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Meerssen | Vvsb | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Wins | 7% | 27% | 17% | 69% | 43% | 57% |
| Draws | 33% | 13% | 23% | 13% | 21% | 17% |
| Loses | 60% | 60% | 60% | 19% | 36% | 27% |
MeerssenLLWDLLLLLLLLLDLLDWLWWLDLDDDLWL
VvsbWWWDDWDLDLWWWDLWWLWLWWWLLWWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Meerssen | Vvsb | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 20 | 37 | 38 | 25 | 63 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 29 | 32 | 61 | 15 | 22 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Meerssen | Vvsb | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 90% | 87% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 63% | 53% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 33% | 33% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 13% | 23% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Meerssen | Vvsb | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Meerssen | Vvsb |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Meerssen | Vvsb |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 9 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 1-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Meerssen | Vvsb |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 28% | 72% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 30% | 70% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 28.8% | 71.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…