Thu, Sep 4 2025 • 00:30 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.14 (league 1.44) 1.13 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
4.5% 32.7% 62.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
31.8%
0 - 0
28.1%
0 - 2
17.9%
Score & goals probability table
Fortaleza FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 28.1% 31.8% 17.9% 6.8% 1.9% 0.4%
1 3.9% 4.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Played35
Form56%60%
Attack15%38%
Defense92%92%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.75 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.31 | 0.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

0.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

37%
FT probability

2.5+

26%
FT probability

3.5+

19%
FT probability

BTTS

48%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 1 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Independiente Medellin Fortaleza FC
HATHAT
Played123325
Wins0%50%33%33%50%40%
Draws100%50%67%67%50%60%
Loses0%0%0%0%0%0%

Form: Independiente Medellin: DWD • Fortaleza FC: WDDWD

League goals

Metric Independiente Medellin Fortaleza FC
HATHAT
GF total112325
GF avg1.00.50.71.01.01.0
GA total101101
GA avg1.00.00.30.30.00.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%33%60%20%
1.50%0%40%0%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets022224
Failed to score011112

Penalties

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Wins11
Draws12
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins0-12-00-2
Biggest losses
Goals For1122
Goals Against1010

Model comparison

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Form36%64%
Att29%71%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h36%64%
Goals45%55%
Total39.2%60.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Fortaleza FC and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.49 @ 188Bet
Draw5.10 @ 10Bet
Away10.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.91 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.98 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.38 @ Bet365
No1.63 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Independiente Medellin = 0.14 (league 1.44), Fortaleza FC = 1.13 (league 0.89)

Fortaleza FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 28.1% 31.8% 17.9% 6.8% 1.9% 0.4%
1 3.9% 4.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 4.5% · Draw 32.7% · Away win 62.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1