Thu, Sep 25 2025 • 18:45 • Stadio Mario Rigamonti
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.04 (league 1.30) 0.36 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.4% 34.8% 12.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
25.6%
0 - 0
24.6%
2 - 0
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
Novara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Brescia 0 24.6% 8.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 25.6% 9.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.3% 4.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUnion BresciaNovara
Played55
Form80%27%
Attack100%25%
Defense75%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)13 | 2.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Union Brescia Novara
HATHAT
Played325325
Wins67%100%80%0%0%0%
Draws0%0%0%67%100%80%
Loses33%0%20%33%0%20%

Form: Union Brescia: LWWWW • Novara: DDDDL

League goals

Metric Union Brescia Novara
HATHAT
GF total8513213
GF avg2.72.52.60.70.50.6
GA total213314
GA avg0.70.50.61.00.50.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUnion BresciaNovara
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%40%60%80%
1.580%20%0%0%
2.540%0%0%0%
3.520%0%0%0%
4.520%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUnion BresciaNovara
HATHAT
Clean sheets213011
Failed to score000112

Penalties

MetricUnion BresciaNovara
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricUnion BresciaNovara
Wins00
Draws04
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-01-3——
Biggest losses1-2—0-1—
Goals For5311
Goals Against2111

Model comparison

MetricUnion BresciaNovara
Form75%25%
Att81%19%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution77%23%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total72.5%27.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Union Brescia or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.72 @ 188Bet
Draw3.50 @ Unibet
Away5.03 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.25 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.67 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Bet365
No1.73 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Union Brescia = 1.04 (league 1.30), Novara = 0.36 (league 0.97)

Novara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Brescia 0 24.6% 8.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 25.6% 9.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.3% 4.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.4% · Draw 34.8% · Away win 12.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1