Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 12:30 • Stadio Citta di Gorgonzola
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.26 (league 1.34) 1.81 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.5% 23.0% 49.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.6%
1 - 2
9.6%
0 - 1
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Novara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Giana Erminio 0 4.6% 8.4% 7.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7%
1 5.9% 10.6% 9.6% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9%
2 3.7% 6.7% 6.0% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6%
3 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%
4 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGiana ErminioNovara
Played55
Form33%20%
Attack23%23%
Defense54%62%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Giana Erminio Novara
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins50%0%25%0%0%0%
Draws0%75%38%75%75%75%
Loses50%25%38%25%25%25%

Form: Giana Erminio: LDWDLLDW • Novara: DDDDLDLD

League goals

Metric Giana Erminio Novara
HATHAT
GF total516246
GF avg1.30.30.80.51.00.8
GA total7310358
GA avg1.80.81.30.81.31.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGiana ErminioNovara
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%75%63%75%
1.525%38%13%13%
2.50%13%0%13%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGiana ErminioNovara
HATHAT
Clean sheets022112
Failed to score134213

Penalties

MetricGiana ErminioNovara
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricGiana ErminioNovara
Wins10
Draws14
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1
Biggest losses1-32-00-13-2
Goals For2112
Goals Against3213

Model comparison

MetricGiana ErminioNovara
Form63%38%
Att50%50%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h38%62%
Goals40%60%
Total46.7%53.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Novara

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.62 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.00 @ Bet365
Away3.10 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.01 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Giana Erminio = 1.26 (league 1.34), Novara = 1.81 (league 1.00)

Novara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Giana Erminio 0 4.6% 8.4% 7.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7%
1 5.9% 10.6% 9.6% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9%
2 3.7% 6.7% 6.0% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6%
3 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%
4 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.5% · Draw 23.0% · Away win 49.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1