Sat, Nov 8 2025 • 16:30 • Carlo Speroni
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.20 (league 1.28) 1.38 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.5% 26.4% 40.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
10.4%
1 - 0
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
Lumezzane
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pro Patria 0 7.5% 10.4% 7.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3%
1 9.1% 12.5% 8.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4%
2 5.5% 7.5% 5.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
3 2.2% 3.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPro PatriaLumezzane
Played55
Form33%20%
Attack27%45%
Defense45%27%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Pro Patria Lumezzane
HATHAT
Played66126612
Wins0%17%8%17%17%17%
Draws50%33%42%33%17%25%
Loses50%50%50%50%67%58%

Form: Pro Patria: LDLDLLDDLWDL • Lumezzane: LLLLWWLLLDDD

League goals

Metric Pro Patria Lumezzane
HATHAT
GF total4487512
GF avg0.70.70.71.20.81.0
GA total1091981321
GA avg1.71.51.61.32.21.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePro PatriaLumezzane
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.542%67%67%75%
1.525%67%25%58%
2.50%25%8%25%
3.50%0%0%8%
4.50%0%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPro PatriaLumezzane
HATHAT
Clean sheets224213
Failed to score437134

Penalties

MetricPro PatriaLumezzane
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricPro PatriaLumezzane
Wins12
Draws20
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-12-00-1
Biggest losses0-33-02-35-0
Goals For2223
Goals Against3335

Model comparison

MetricPro PatriaLumezzane
Form63%38%
Att38%63%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h64%36%
Goals64%36%
Total55.5%44.8%

Advice: Double chance : Pro Patria or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.94 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.05 @ Unibet
Away2.63 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.47 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.60 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.79 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Pro Patria = 1.20 (league 1.28), Lumezzane = 1.38 (league 0.98)

Lumezzane
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pro Patria 0 7.5% 10.4% 7.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3%
1 9.1% 12.5% 8.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4%
2 5.5% 7.5% 5.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
3 2.2% 3.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.5% · Draw 26.4% · Away win 40.7%

Vtot 4 , Vtod1