Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:30 •
Mino Favini
Expected Goals
1.72 (league 1.29)
0.87 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 56.5% | 23.7% | 18.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.9%
1 - 1
11.2%
2 - 0
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Pro Patria | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Renate | 0 | 7.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.9% | 11.2% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Renate carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 258 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Renate +4.7, Pro Patria -6.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Renate
vs
Pro Patria
Elo gapRenate +258
Home / draw / away67% / 18% / 15%
Expected home share82%
Combined Elo2927.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2927.8
Elo home share
82%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Renate | Pro Patria |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1575.4 | 1352.4 |
| Form Elo | 1586.5 | 1349.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.6 | 1429.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1543.3 | 1395 |
| Defense Elo | 1585.8 | 1352 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.7 | -6.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Renate last-5 Elo change: +4.7; Pro Patria last-5 Elo change: -6.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Renate | Pro Patria |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 27% |
| Attack | 75% | 75% |
| Defense | 33% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Renate | Pro Patria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 44% | 42% | 43% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Draws | 28% | 42% | 35% | 37% | 22% | 30% |
| Loses | 28% | 16% | 22% | 53% | 67% | 59% |
RenateWDWLDLLDWDLDWLWLDDWWWDWWDWLWWWDDLWDWD
Pro PatriaLDLDLLDDLWDLDLWLLLLLLLLLDWLLDDDLLLDWL
League goals
| Metric | Renate | Pro Patria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 27 | 51 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 18 | 18 | 36 | 38 | 30 | 68 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Renate | Pro Patria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 62% | 57% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 24% | 24% | 65% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 11% | 5% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Renate | Pro Patria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
Penalties
| Metric | Renate | Pro Patria |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Renate | Pro Patria |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 9 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Renate | Pro Patria |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 66.8% | 33.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.40 @ Betano
Draw4.80 @ Dafabet
Away8.25 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.73 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Betfair
No1.80 @ BetVictor
📊
League standings
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