Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:30 •
Stadio Ernesto Breda
Expected Goals
1.20 (league 1.29)
0.64 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.3% | 30.7% | 19.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.1%
0 - 0
15.9%
1 - 1
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Albinoleffe | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alcione | 0 | 15.9% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Alcione -35.9, Albinoleffe +18.5.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Alcione
vs
Albinoleffe
Elo gapAlcione +3
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo2975.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2975.6
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Alcione | Albinoleffe |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1471.6 | 1504 |
| Form Elo | 1453.6 | 1516.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1500.4 | 1494.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1379.4 | 1504.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1607.3 | 1490.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -35.9 | +18.5 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Alcione last-5 Elo change: -35.9; Albinoleffe last-5 Elo change: +18.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Alcione | Albinoleffe |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 67% |
| Attack | 17% | 83% |
| Defense | 33% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Alcione | Albinoleffe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 44% | 32% | 38% | 47% | 22% | 35% |
| Draws | 28% | 26% | 27% | 16% | 44% | 30% |
| Loses | 28% | 42% | 35% | 37% | 33% | 35% |
AlcioneWLWDDWWLWLDWWLLWLLLWWLWLWDWWDDDDLDLLD
AlbinoleffeDLLDWWWDLLLLDWLDDLWLWDLWDDWDLWWLWDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Alcione | Albinoleffe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 14 | 33 | 30 | 20 | 50 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 10 | 17 | 27 | 22 | 25 | 47 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Alcione | Albinoleffe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 59% | 59% | 76% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 11% | 43% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 3% | 16% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Alcione | Albinoleffe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Alcione | Albinoleffe |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Alcione | Albinoleffe |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Alcione | Albinoleffe |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 17% | 83% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 34.8% | 65.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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